Talk:Academy City/@comment-184.91.216.71-20131115015855/@comment-24.218.214.130-20140409045023

again, we all must consider the possibility of being an esper and magician over a normal person.

esper: considering that unless you are a gemstone, which is a 1/1000000 chance, you would be one of the people in academy city, which only has 2.3 million people out of around 7-8 billion people (considering this is the future) about a 1/3600 chance or so but probably lower considering the advantage of native citizens and prejudice of foreigners in japan, so for people not in japan it would be curved to more like 1/7000. adding on the chance of being a level 0, which is around 60%, the chance of being an non-Japanese esper would be lowered to around 1/15000. more calculation: there are 7 level 5 espers in academy city. considering that a gemstone is 1/1000000, there are around 3 million espers in the world. the chance of being a level 5 would be about 1/450000. with that added on to the 1/15000 of being a non-Japanese esper, you have a 1/6500000000 chance of being a non-Japanese level 5 esper (basically impossible if not one in the world). Japanese espers are another story, and I'm not calculating the probability since they already get the benefit of being Japanese and having this series in Japanese makes then over privileged (it's prejudice, I know, but I still feel it's unfair).

magician: this is a little tricky to calculate due to little information, but let me try (with large estimations and assumptions). so there are about 7-8 billion people at this time. let's estimate that there are 5-6 billion people affiliated with religion. since magic is real and has existed for thousands of years, let's assume that around 0.1% of the religious people pursue or can use magic. that would lower the amount to 5-6 million. with magicians there is no prejudice on ethnicity, so there is an equal chance for all. looking at magical cabals and organizations, I'm estimating only 1% of magicians can act efficient enough independently to have an impact, there are only around 50-60 thousand capable magicians. so there would only be a 1/1300 chance of being a magician and a 1/130000 chance of being a capable magician (this is considering that magic originally existed and has advanced more than science). quite a high chance considering the chance of being an esper, but this is mostly, if not all, speculation.

saints, angels, gods, and just OP magicians: saint calculation is easy. less than 20 saints and 8 billion people. less than a 1/400000000 of being a saint and not necessarily being affiliated with magic since it is a natural condition and only has a strong relationship with magic, not a definite one. with angels, counting accelerator in his dark wing mode/white wing and halo modes, there have been 4 angels in the world (aiwass, Gabriel, fuze_kazakiri, and accelerator). with 8 billion people, that is a 1/2000000000 chance of being an angel. for gods, there have only been 2 people who have entered god territory, so only 1/4000000000 chance of being a god. for OP magicians, I assume there are only around 0.01% of capable magicians who can be considered very, very powerful magicians (this is around the level of aleister Crowley and such) so that would be a 1/1300000000 chance of being an OP magician.

let's not forget the anomaly of imagine breaker with less than 1/8000000000 of happening (much less actually, since it can inhabit and object)

all in all, being in the index-verse is not much different from the normal world. the statistics of being powerful in the index-verse are very low. you would have a 99.9% chance of being a normal person or level 0. of course I did not do very precise calculation (about all of it is rounded for convenience), and most of this is speculation and assumption on my part (primarily the magic side). the story is about magic, but does not give much numerical information on it.